Gold's safety net attracts investors as trade tensions intensify - Commodity Trading Chennai

US-China trade concerns have been lingering over global markets since last year however gold failed to benefit as we saw a rush towards the US dollar.

It has been a fabulous year for gold so far as it has risen over 19 percent and tested the highest level in six years. Gold in the international market hit a high of $1,555.07/oz, the highest level since April 2013. The notable development, however, is that gold has regained its status as a safe-haven asset.

 US-China trade concerns have been lingering over global markets since last year however gold failed to benefit as we saw a rush towards the US dollar. Firmness in US and global equity market also reduced gold’s demand as an alternative asset. Trade tensions have intensified in last few months as both US and China have imposed import tariffs against each other while attempts at talks have failed to yield result. This along with slowdown in economic activity in major economies has been enough to cause a rush towards safe haven assets. The latest push came in after China announced 5-10 percent import duty on $75 billion Chinese goods and US retaliated by increasing import tariffs on $550 billion goods by another 5 percent. Gold has however not been the sole beneficiary of flight towards safe havens. The Japanese Yen has hit the highest level since November 2016 while US 10-year bond yield has slipped to lowest level since July 2016 lows. Along with safe haven buying, gold has also benefitted from loose monetary policy stance of major central banks. Fed has already cut key lending rate by 0.25 percent and market expectations are high of further rate cut despite the central bank maintaining a non-committal stance. A spate of other central banks has also cut lending rates to boost growth. Robust investor interest has also added to gold’s allure. Gold holdings with global ETF’s have risen by nearly 210 tonnes so far to stand near 2427 tonnes, the highest since March 2013. With increasing global economic uncertainty, it is likely that we may see the upward momentum in gold continuing. However, it could be a tumultuous ride as we await more clarity in major issues. The key questions lingering at present is whether US-China will reach a trade deal, whether Fed will cut interest rate again, whether US economy may face another recession and whether Britain will exit European Union without a deal. Unless these questions are answered we are bound to see volatility in financial markets which could benefit safe havens like gold.

Trade செய்யும் போது patience முக்கியமானதா - Indian Business Trade Inc

Silver futures up on global cues - Indian Business Trade Inc

On the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver for September contracts was trading up by Rs 711, or 1.59 per cent, to Rs 45,313 per kg with a business turnover of 5,472 lots.

Silver prices rose by Rs 711 to Rs 45,313 per kg in futures trade on Monday after speculators built up fresh positions amid firm trend overseas. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver for September contracts was trading up by Rs 711, or 1.59 per cent, to Rs 45,313 per kg with a business turnover of 5,472 lots. However, the metal for delivery in far-month December contracts was trading down by Rs 750, or 1.63 per cent, to Rs 46,690 per kg in 1,135 lots. Analysts said, the rise in silver prices at futures trade was due to building up of positions by participants tracking a firm trend in overseas market. Globally, silver edged up by 1.38 per cent at USD 17.66 an ounce in New York.

Commodity Trading Gold - Indian Business Trade Inc

Gold at over six-year peak as trade war escalation sparks safe-haven rush :

Gold prices scaled a fresh six-year high on August 26, as the latest tit-for-tat tariffs by the United States and China in their year-long trade war battered global equities and boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold jumped 0.9% to $1,539.70 per ounce as of 0414 GMT, having earlier touched $1,554.56 an ounce, its highest since April 2013. US gold futures were up 0.8% at $1,549.50 an ounce. On August 23, US President Donald Trump announced a 5% additional duty on $550 billion in targeted Chinese goods, hours after Beijing unveiled retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion worth of US products. "Gold was the beneficiary of President Trump's tweetstorm on August 23," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at VM Markets. Equity markets plunged in response, with the US stocks plunging on August 23, and the Asian ones following on August 26. Traders were also tracking the Group of Seven summit, where Trump indicated he may have had second thoughts on the tariffs. Later, the White House clarified that Trump wished he had raised tariffs on Chinese goods even higher last week. Gold retraced some of the earlier gains as traders locked in gains. "What we are seeing right now is a bit of profit taking coming in, but that doesn't change the overall sentiment for gold," said OANDA analyst Jeffrey Halley. Meanwhile, in a possible softening, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said on August 26 that China opposes the escalation of the trade conflict, a state-backed newspaper reported. On August 23, Fed Chair Powell said the US central bank will "act as appropriate" to keep the economy healthy, although he stopped short of committing to rapid-fire rate cuts. The markets are fully priced for a quarter-point cut in rates next month, and over 100 basis points of easing by the end of next year. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes dived from a top of 1.66% on August 23, leaving them almost matching two-year yields. The drop in yields caused the dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, to slide 0.5% on August 23, and was hovering close to that level. Lower bond yields and a weaker dollar reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing gold. Spot gold may peak in a range of $1,546-$1,569 per ounce, said Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Indicative of market sentiment, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.58% to 859.83 tonnes on August 23. Hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish stance in COMEX gold in the week to August 20, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on August 23. Elsewhere, silver was up 1.3% at $17.62 per ounce and platinum gained 1% to $862.
Palladium climbed 0.5% to $1,467.23 per ounce.

Oil prices eke out small gains ahead of Fed Chair speech

Brent crude rose 10 cents to $60.02 a barrel by 0118 GMT, while U.S. crude futures were at $55.38 a barrel, up 3 cents. Both contracts were on track for a second weekly gain.

Oil prices clawed back the previous day's losses on Friday, with Brent nudging above $60 a barrel, as tighter supplies from key producers offset slowing demand growth while investors await clues from the Federal Reserve on U.S. monetary policy. Brent crude rose 10 cents to $60.02 a barrel by 0118 GMT, while U.S. crude futures were at $55.38 a barrel, up 3 cents. Both contracts were on track for a second weekly gain. "Oil is set to trade quietly today as it's all about the Jackson Hole (meeting) tonight," Jeffrey Halley, a Singapore-based senior market analyst at brokerage Oanda. "What we're seeing is some profit-taking in Asia in very light volumes." A speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday t a meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole is expected to provide some clues on whether the Fed will cut interest rates for a second time this year to boost the U.S. economy. Traders' expectations of further U.S. monetary easing were clouded by comments from two Fed officials who said on Wednesday that they do not see a case for a rate cut now. A reduction in interest rates could strengthen the U.S. dollar against other currencies and make dollar-denominated oil more costly for investors. Oil prices are down for nearly two straight months after the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut demand growth forecasts as a simmering U.S.-China trade war hit global economic growth. However, oil prices remained supported by production cuts from OPEC members and Russia while U.S. sanctions have sharply reduced exports from Iran and Venezuela.

Gold prices are expected to trade lower today: IBT Commodity Trading :

According to Angel Commodities, on Monday, spot gold prices dipped by 1.24 percent to close at $1495.0 per ounce. On Monday, spot gold prices dipped by 1.24 percent to close at $1495.0 per ounce. Spot gold prices declined below the $1500 mark recording its biggest daily fall in almost a month. Markets seem to move towards riskier assets as the U.S. Treasury yield curve is no longer pointing towards an evident recession. Correction in the treasury yield supported the U.S. Dollar and weighed on the yellow metal prices. Moreover, the dispute between U.S. & China showed some signs of easing the intense trade war which further boosted the risk appetite amongst investors. Rising bond yields globally amid easing of tension between the biggest economies in the world dented the appeal for the bullion metal.

We expect gold and silver prices to trade lower as appreciation in the U.S. Dollar and fading concerns over a possible recession dented the appeal for the safe haven asset, Gold. ON the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade lower today; international markets are trading lower by 0.39 percent to close at 1505.55 per ounce.

Oil rises alongside equities, but downbeat OPEC outlook caps gains

OPEC's efforts have been undermined by worries about the economy , as well as rising US stockpiles of crude and higher output of US shale oil.Oil prices on August 16 rebounded from a two-day drop, alongside equities as expectations of further stimulus by central banks helped to ease recession concerns. But oil's gains were capped after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries trimmed its global oil demand forecast in a downbeat outlook for the rest of 2019 as economic growth slows. The cartel also highlighted challenges in 2020 as rivals pump more, building a case to keep up an OPEC-led pact to restrain supplies. "OPEC killed the golden goose," said Bob Yawger, director of futures at Mizuho in New York. "We've had some little rallies back into the green, as market tries to follow equities higher, but the fundamentals in the report are so bearish that it caps the rallies." Brent crude was ended the session up 41 cents, or 0.7%, at $58.64 a barrel, after falling 2.1% on Thursday and 3% the previous day. US crude rose 40 cents to settle at $54.87 a barrel, having dropped 1.4% in the previous session and 3.3% on Wednesday. Before the OPEC monthly report, Brent touched a session high of $59.50 and US crude traded at $55.67 as investors expect further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and moves by the European Central Bank next month to fight softening growth..

For the week, both oil benchmarks eked out small gains after two consecutive weeks of losses, even as Wall Street's three main indexes were on track to rack up their third weekly loss, as investors worried about the risk of recession and US-China trade tensions. BNP Paribas cut its forecast for 2019 for US crude by $8 to $55 per barrel and for Brent by $9 to $62 per barrel, citing slowing economy amid the trade dispute. Earlier this week, data releases included a surprise drop in industrial output growth in China to a more than 17-year low, and a fall in exports that sent Germany's economy into reverse in the second quarter. The price of Brent is still up nearly 10% this year helped by supply cuts led by OPEC and its allies such as Russia, a group known as OPEC+. In July, OPEC+ agreed to extend oil output cuts until March 2020 to prop up prices. "At what point will further output cuts be needed at the back end of this year from OPEC and Russia to keep things going the way they are?" said Phin Ziebell, senior economist at National Australia Bank. A Saudi official indicated this month that more steps may be coming, saying Saudi Arabia was committed to do "whatever it takes" to keep the market balanced next year. OPEC's efforts have been undermined by worries about the economy , as well as rising US stockpiles of crude and higher output of US shale oil. Also capping oil's gains on August 16, US energy firms this week increased the number of oil rigs operating for the first time in seven weeks, General Electric Co's Baker Hughes energy services firm said. The oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, has declined over the past eight months as independent exploration and production companies cut spending on new drilling as they focus more on earnings growth instead of increased output.

Gold holds steady as political, trade woes persist :

Gold steadied on Wednesday, consolidating around the key $1,500 level, buoyed by uncertainty around political risks such as the unrest in Hong Kong amid global growth concerns, while a slight easing of the Sino-U.S. trade tensions kept prices in check.
Spot gold was steady at $1,501.73 per ounce at 0251 GMT. U.S. gold futures were down 0.1% at $1,512.10 an ounce. "Easing in trade tensions, geopolitical risks have provided some sort of hope in the markets which boosted equities, because of this there is a brief pullback in gold prices," said John Sharma, an economist with National Australia Bank."However, the trade dispute is still not resolved. Geopolitical risks in Hong Kong, trends in global growth and we are also expecting at least one more cut from the Federal Reserve. All these factors are supportive for gold,"

Commodity Trading in Chennai: Crude oil futures dip 0.03% on muted demand :

Commodity Trading in Chennai: Crude oil futures dip 0.03% on muted demand :: On the Multi Commodity Exchange , crude oil for delivery in August contracts was trading lower by Re 1, or 0.03 per cent, to Rs 3,902 p...

Crude oil futures dip 0.03% on muted demand :

On the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for delivery in August contracts was trading lower by Re 1, or 0.03 per cent, to Rs 3,902 per barrel with a business turnover of 36,836 lots. Crude oil futures on Tuesday fell 0.03 per cent to Rs 3,902 per barrel after participants tightened their bets tracking a muted trend in domestic markets. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for delivery in August contracts was trading lower by Re 1, or 0.03 per cent, to Rs 3,902 per barrel with a business turnover of 36,836 lots. The crude for delivery in September contracts, however, edged higher by Rs 2, or 0.05 per cent, to Rs 3,915 per barrel with a business volume of 268 lots. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.75 per cent to USD 55.11 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, was up 0.60 per cent to USD 60.17 per barrel. 

Base Metals: Nickel, Copper, Lead, & Zinc, Aluminium futures fall on low demand :

Nickel :
Nickel prices drifted lower by 0.39 per cent to Rs 1,015.30 per kg in futures trade Friday as speculators trimmed positions amid muted spot demand. On Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel contracts for August delivery declined by Rs 4, or 0.39 per cent, to Rs 1,015.30 per kg in a business turnover of 12,378 lots. Analysts said apart from low demand from alloy-makers, profit-booking by speculators weighed on nickel futures
Copper :
Copper futures traded 0.14 per cent lower on Friday as speculators cut down their positions at prevailing levels to book profits amid muted spot demand. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in August contracts fell by 60 paise, or 0.14 per cent, to Rs 439.40 per kg with a business turnover of 5,553 lots. Copper contracts for September delivery traded lower by Rs 1.35, or 0.31 per cent, to Rs 440.30 per kg in a business turnover of 224 lots. Traders said, the fall in copper prices at futures trade was mostly due to profit-booking by speculators and subdued demand at spot market.
Zinc :
Zinc prices eased 0.16 per cent to Rs 189.40 per kg in futures trade Friday as speculators cut down positions taking weak cues from the spot market. 
On Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in August declined 30 paise, or 0.16 per cent, to Rs 189.40 per kg in a business turnover of 3,800 lots.
Marketmen said weakness in metals in domestic spot market owing to slackened demand from consuming industries influenced the prices.

Lead :
Lead prices fell 0.13 per cent to Rs 151.95 per kg in futures trade Friday after participants booked profits amid subdued demand at the spot market. On the Multi commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in current month was trading down by 20 paise, or 0.13 per cent, to Rs 151.95 per kg in a business turnover of 1,797 lots. Lead for delivery in September was trading down by 35 paise, or 0.23 per cent, to Rs 152.50 per kg in a business turnover of 48 lots.
Aluminium :
Aluminium prices inched up by 0.54 per cent to Rs 139.70 per kg in futures trade Friday as speculators created fresh positions amid rising spot demand. 
On the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium contracts for August delivery edged up by 75 paise, or 0.54 per cent, to Rs 139.70 per kg in 2,663 lots. 
Analysts said positions built up by participants on the back of rising demand from consuming industries in physical markets led to the rise in aluminium prices.